With any luck, bettors are playing with so-called "house money" as they gear up to make Week 2 NFL picks.
The opening week of action wasn't exactly prone to predictable outcomes, not with contenders such as the Indianapolis Colts taking a dive. Still, it's the middle of the week and a work shift away from Thursday Night Football, meaning the lines out of Las Vegas are ripe.
Midweek lines strike the perfect balance for bettors. There's just enough injury information and time to study up before the lines move around to better protect the house. Below, let's mash all this together to make some Week 2 picks against the spreads.
NFL Week 2 Odds
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
Analyzing Toughest Lines
San Diego at Cincinnati (-3)
Talk about a tough one.
The San Diego Chargers looked like one of the best teams in the league last week in a 33-28 win against the Detroit Lions. Philip Rivers went for 404 yards with a pair of scores and picks, but more impressive was the defense's ability to limit Calvin Johnson to two catches and pick off Matthew Stafford twice.
Then again, the Cincinnati Bengals looked even more impressive by traveling across the country and delivering a 33-13 thumping to the Oakland Raiders—all of Oakland's 13 points coming in the final frame, when Cincinnati had backups in the game.
Andy Dalton threw two scores to breakout tight end Tyler Eifert, who caught nine passes for 104 yards in the process. The Cincinnati defense was impressive to say the least.
The difference between the Bengals and lines that bettors should care about? Eifert. Detroit doesn't have a similar weapon to hit when a defense contains weapons on the edges. Cincinnati also has back Jeremy Hill, who just breezed his way to 63 yards and two scores—Detroit only ran the ball 16 times.
At home and forcing the Chargers to travel across the country for an early game, look for the Bengals to come up big while riding Hill and exploiting the middle of the field.
Prediction: Bengals 24, Chargers 20
Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-9.5)
Sometimes lines can be too big. This appears to be one of those cases.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers looked terrible at home last week in a 42-14 loss to the Tennessee Titans, allowing rookie Marcus Mariota to throw four scores in the process.
While ugly, call it growing pains for rookie quarterback Jameis Winston, whose offense only rushed 26 times and was without top wideout Mike Evans.
"They played the best they can possibly play and we played the worst we can possibly play," Winston said, per the Associated Press (via ESPN.com). "We got our worst game out of the way. We can't look back."
The rookie might be on to something, and it's not like the New Orleans Saints looked much better in their opener against the Arizona Cardinals, getting walloped 31-19 on the road. Drew Brees completed 30-of-48 with a score. But the team only rushed 20 times, and the defense allowed the Cardinals to rush for 4.8 yards per carry, while Carson Palmer threw three scores.
This isn't to suggest bettors should consider taking the Buccaneers outright. But Winston will continue to grow, Evans might come back and the defense needs to clean up a few big-play lapses to keep contests closer.
NFC South battles always seem close. Last year, the two-win Buccaneers lost 37-31 in overtime in the first matchup against the Saints then 23-20. They're both losses. But pair this with the fact the Saints looked miserable last week, and the under is the only way to go.
Prediction: Saints 28, Buccaneers 20
N.Y. Jets at Indianapolis (-5.5)
This doesn't seem like the prettiest Monday Night Football affair, right?
That may be so. But the New York Jets love to blitz, and it's exactly what gave Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts so much trouble in a Week 1 loss to the Buffalo Bills. There, Luck threw a pair of scores and interceptions, but more concerning was his defense, which allowed 147 total rushing yards and two scores.
Good news for the home team, though—the Jets don't have an offense as diverse or potent as the unit Buffalo trots out. Chris Ivory went for 91 yards and two scores last week, but with the Jets' lack of a dual-threat quarterback under center (sorry, Ryan Fitzpatrick), the Colts defense should be able to clamp down.
Most important to this matchup, though, is the adjustments Luck will make under center. He's too good to suffer the same issues against another elite defense. Keep in mind that while Darrelle Revis will have a lock on one side of the field, Luck can attack the other, with Antonio Cromartie week-to-week with a knee injury, per the Jets.
At home, the Indianapolis defense will have the benefit of noise to stile a Fitzpatrick-led offense. So long as the Colts can get Frank Gore going on the ground and Luck fares better against the blitz, this is the big line of the week to play.
Prediction: Colts 24, Jets 13
Stats courtesy of NFL.com and accurate as of Sept. 15. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
via http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2566981-nfl-week-2-picks-latest-predictions-for-updated-spreads
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