Alabama is 10-1 straight up in its last 11 meetings with Ole Miss, but the Rebels are 7-4 against the spread during that span and beat the Tide outright last season. Alabama gets a chance to reassert control of this rivalry when the teams meet for an SEC West showdown Saturday night in Tuscaloosa.
Point spread: The Crimson Tide opened as 8.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 19.9-19.1 Crimson Tide
Why the Mississippi Rebels can cover the spread
Ole Miss is off to one of the gaudier starts in FBS ball this season, with a pair of lopsided wins/covers. Two weeks ago, the Rebels opened with a 76-3 victory over Tennessee-Martin, covering as 39-point favorites, and last week, they bombed Fresno State 73-21, covering at minus-31.
Ole Miss led the Bulldogs 28-0 after one quarter Saturday and then piled on with 38 second-half points. The Rebs racked up 607 yards of offense, 215 on the ground, while quarterback Chad Kelly hit on 20 of 25 throws for 346 yards and four scores.
Ole Miss returned 16 starters this season from a team that rose to No. 3 in the country last season before fading. They included the entire offensive line, which is a good place to start, and seven on defense. Finally, the Rebs beat 'Bama last year 23-17 as four-point home dogs, scoring twice in the last six minutes to snap a 10-game losing streak in the series.
Why the Alabama Crimson Tide can cover the spread
Alabama is also 2-0 following Saturday's 37-10 walk-through against Middle Tennessee. The Tide led the Blue Raiders 23-3 at the half and 37-3 after three quarters and then politely declined to cover as 34-point favorites, going scoreless in the fourth. Alabama put up 532 yards of offense, 220 on the ground, while quarterback Jake Coker posted his second 200-yard passing game in a row.
Two weeks ago, the Tide opened the season with a 35-17 victory over Wisconsin, and that game wasn't even that close, as Alabama picked up a relatively easy cover at minus-13. Also, while the Tide lost this matchup last season, they outplayed the Rebs for 54 minutes and nearly drove for the winning score in the last minute.
Smart pick
Ole Miss seems to have a good thing going and might be considered the favorite to win the SEC West with a victory Saturday. But Alabama isn't Fresno State. The Tide brushed off the Badgers in Week 1 and then toyed with Middle Tennessee last week. And while the quarterback spot was cause for concern coming into this season, Coker looks good so far. Finally, Alabama is 9-5 ATS at home over the last two seasons and 5-1 ATS when favored by two touchdowns or less. The smart money here leans Crimson.
Betting trends
- Alabama is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games against Ole Miss.
- The total has gone under in Ole Miss' last six games on the road.
- Ole Miss is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six games on the road.
All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.
via http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2566970-mississippi-rebels-vs-alabama-crimson-tide-betting-odds-college-football-pick
RSS Feed
