The Carolina Panthers are a good bet at home as of late, going 10-4-2 against the spread over the last two seasons, 7-2-2 ATS as home chalk. The Houston Texans, meanwhile, went 5-2-1 ATS on the road last year. In what looks to be a good battle between evenly matched teams, the Panthers tangle with the Texans Sunday afternoon in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Point spread: Panthers opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 41.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 23.4-20.3 Panthers
Why the Texans can cover the spread
Coming off a season-opening 27-20 loss at home to Kansas City, the Texans, after finishing 9-7 last season, will be looking to even their record at 1-1. Houston fell behind, 27-6, Sunday, thanks in large part to a pair of Brian Hoyer turnovers inside its own red zone, both of which the Chiefs turned into touchdowns.
The Texans rallied to within one score in the waning moments, but an onside kick failed. By the end, Houston had outrushed and outgained Kansas City; it just couldn't overcome those two early turnovers.
If the Texans can eliminate the mistakes and the short fields that come with them, get the running game going and make a big play or two on defense, they could win this game outright.
Why the Panthers can cover the spread
Carolina is 1-0 both straight up and ATS, after taking care of business at Jacksonville last week, 20-9, covering as a three-point road favorite. The Panthers didn't do anything special; they ran the ball 35 times for only 105 yards but held the ball for over 34 minutes and won the turnover battle, 3-1.
The big play came when Carolina cornerback Josh Norman jumped a sideline route, picked off a Blake Bortles pass and returned it 30 yards for a third-quarter touchdown that put the Panthers up, 17-9.
Carolina finished last season with a four-game winning streak and added one to that run last week. If the Panthers can get their running game going Sunday, play their normal tough defense and get a few good throws out of Cam Newton, they could run that home streak to six, with points enough to spare for the cover.
Smart pick
NFL football can be a fickle game to pick, and sometimes the smart choice is the one that goes against the grain. Carolina won on the road last week, while Houston lost at home. So wouldn't it make perfect betting sense to take the Texans in this spot?
Betting trends
The Texans are 1-12 SU in their last 13 games as road underdogs.
The Panthers are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games against the AFC South.
The Panthers are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games as home favorites.
All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.
via http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2567456-houston-texans-vs-carolina-panthers-betting-odds-analysis-nfl-pick
RSS Feed
