Outside of Michigan State's victory over Oregon, no team in major college football had a bigger Week 2 win than Oklahoma. It signified that the Sooners were not only the latest team to have its name thrown in the playoff conversation, but that the Big 12 could win huge out-of-conference games. This was especially needed after Texas' blowout loss to Notre Dame in Week 1.
But does the Big 12 have more playoff contenders than, say, the SEC?
The important question is what constitutes a playoff contender. After all, few teams have been tested, which means we're still going off preseason rankings to some degree. Furthermore, we should have learned our lesson from last year not to make sweeping proclamations about who's been "eliminated" from contention.
In other words, it would be most unwise to simply assume Oregon is out of the race after coming up short in a big game.
For this conversation, let's treat "playoff contenders" as a snapshot. Associated Press and USA Today Amway Coaches Polls are taken into consideration—enough football has been played that some shuffling has taken place—as are on-field results.
For example: Texas A&M entered the playoff conversation after beating Arizona State in Week 1. Conversely, does anyone think Auburn still looks like a playoff-caliber team after needing an overtime comeback against Jacksonville State?
The great thing about the term "playoff contenders" is that it's fluid. For all anyone knows, Auburn will kick it into high gear and go undefeated; or TCU will succumb to injury problems and tanks. We're leaving this open to change, because change it will.
With that in mind, let's examine the playoff contenders from the Big 12 vs. the SEC, as well as their chances of staying under that label moving forward.
Big 12
Baylor and TCU
Baylor and TCU fans, respectively, won't enjoy their teams being lumped together, but the Bears and Frogs are, in a way, attached at the hip regarding playoff hopes. Ask anyone over the past eight months which Big 12 teams had the best shot at making the final four, and you would have received both answers interchangeably.
There's been little reason to deviate from that belief, even though both teams have already had moments of vulnerability.
TCU struggled on the road against Minnesota to open the year. However, the Gophers match up extremely well defensively and held the Frogs to their lowest point total in 2014. It's the toughest secondary the Frogs will face all year, save for perhaps Kansas State and West Virginia. Lo and behold, the Mountaineers also gave TCU fits last year, too.
Baylor's defense still has some question marks after giving up 21 first-half points to SMU in Week 1 and FCS team Lamar in Week 2. These aren't garbage-time touchdowns we're talking about here. But in each instance, Baylor went full Baylor and pulled away in the second half without the other team having so much as a puncher's chance at catching up.
Heading into Week 3, TCU and Baylor are ranked No. 3 and No. 5, respectively, in the both the AP and coaches polls. Long story short, neither team's playoff chances—or, at least, the perception of those chances—have changed much, for better or worse.
Oklahoma
Here's where things get a little interesting.
Oklahoma was the media's preseason No. 3 team in the Big 12. According to Eric Bailey of the Tulsa World, it was the first time in 15 years the Sooners weren't picked to finish first or second in the Big 12 preseason poll. As such, Oklahoma had a dark-horse label to them. Considering the number of big names and Big 12 preseason first-team selections, it was definitely uncharted territory.
But the 31-24 come-from-behind overtime win on the road at Tennessee made Oklahoma the team du jour—at least for the week. Certainly, the Sooners have the best win of anyone in the Big 12, which should lead us to believe they're at least capable of beating anyone in the Big 12. That plays into what center Ty Darlington told Bleacher Report at Big 12 media days in July.
"We knew we were capable of playing with any team in the nation last year," said Darlington. "But we didn't play to the best of our ability at times."
To Darlington's point, three of Oklahoma's five losses last season were decided by four points or fewer.
Perhaps those conference-title dreams for 2015 might not be dreams. Maybe the playoff chatter was merely uttered a year too soon (on a related note, Darlington could miss an extended period of time with a knee injury, according to the Oklahoman staff).
Oklahoma's toughest games are in November: at Baylor (Nov. 14), vs. TCU (Nov. 21) and at Oklahoma State (Nov. 28). Assuming the wheels don't spectacularly fly off the Sooner Schooner in the next two months, the Big 12 title race, and whatever playoff aspirations hang in the balance, could be more wide-open than previously thought, as David Ubben of Sports on Earth opined:
The Big 12's round-robin schedule means the conference schedule is essentially a push, but if the Sooners make it to championship weekend at 11-1, they'll have a far better nonconference win than any of the three other most likely Big 12 title contenders. Tennessee may still be a year away from winning the SEC East, but it's surely a bowl team and probably more. Grabbing a road win there enhances Oklahoma's playoff resume and the win itself makes Oklahoma holding up a league title trophy in December look much more realistic.
Just a little something to consider.
SEC
Alabama
What else is new, right?
The Tide's Week 1 win over Wisconsin in Arlington was impressive not just in the 35-17 final score, but in the key matchup: the trenches. The Badgers are going to run the ball. It's their bread and butter. Yet the Tide held the Badgers to about 3.5 yards per carry (excluding sacks) and kept Corey Clement in check.
The good news for Alabama is that it's not winning in spite of the offense, either. The running game with Derrick Henry and Kenyan Drake is humming along, and quarterback Jake Coker is managing things nicely. The SEC West schedule can be a grind, but after a poor Week 2 showing, this could be Alabama's division (and conference) to lose once again.
Georgia
Struggling against Vanderbilt could be a warning sign for the Bulldogs.
The Commodores have a defense that shouldn't be ignored, but this was a one-score game at halftime and not really in Georgia's control until late in the second half. While Georgia has running backs for days, the up-and-down performances from quarterback Greyson Lambert provide some cause for concern.
However, head coach Mark Richt remains confident in Lambert's ability to move the ball through the air:
We'll find out quickly if Georgia is a legitimate playoff contender or not. The South Carolina game has a history of being tricky, but the Oct. 3 game at home against Alabama will be the biggest test of the season. The Bulldogs follow that up with a key run through the East division, before ending the year at Auburn and Georgia Tech.
It might not be the single toughest schedule out there, but there are a number of key games Georgia has to prove it can win.
Ole Miss
Hey, if you're going to beat up on lower-tier teams, do it in style.
That's exactly what Ole Miss has done, putting up 70-plus points on Tennessee-Martin and Fresno State.
But the Rebels' gut-check game comes this Saturday. As head coach Hugh Freeze explained to Michael Casagrande of AL.com, the Tide offer a variety of defensive looks to keep offenses off balance:
You are going to get their mixture of odd and even fronts. They have guys that can two-gap you on one play and then get on the edge on the next play. Their back ends are going to keep you guessing on whether it is man or zone and they disguise it well. Alabama's defense has not changed a lot, and they probably don't need to. They are very good at what they do. You may see a new pattern or blitz every now and then, though.
It could be the toughest test Ole Miss faces all year, but the Rebels have a number of future NFL players on their roster. A win over Alabama would launch Ole Miss to the top of the playoff conversation. However, a loss wouldn't completely eliminate those hopes, especially if the game is close. For all the talk about Michigan State and Ohio State getting into the playoff, Ole Miss-Alabama could ignite similar conversation.
Texas A&M
It's possible we've seen this movie before.
Remember when Texas A&M upended South Carolina in Week 1 of last season and hopped aboard the hype express, only to lose five of their final seven regular-season games? Will that happen again, or is this team for real?
We'll find out soon enough, but this much is certain: A little bit of that shine from the Arizona State win two weeks ago has been taken off after the Sun Devils barely survived against Cal Poly, as Dan Wolken of USA Today tweeted:
The key difference is that the Aggie defense is being run by John Chavis and has already shown signs of improvement. The run defense is almost a full yard better this year, and the pass rush was lethal against the Sun Devils.
Assuming those numbers can be maintained, A&M could be the SEC and playoff sleeper.
Conclusion
The SEC has more playoff contenders entering Week 3 simply because it has more ranked 2-0 (or, in LSU's case, 1-0) teams. That said, Week 2 was a reality check of sorts for the SEC and a more positive weekend for the Big 12, which can hang its hat on Oklahoma's win in Knoxville.
How things evolve over the course of the season will be fascinating. Never rule out the possibility that either conference could get two teams into the field of four. If there's anything that gives the Big 12 an edge later in the season, however, it's the round-robin schedule. It's possible the Big 12 will enter the month of November with as many as four teams in the playoff hunt that haven't played each other.
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All stats courtesy of CFBStats.com.
via http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2567110-does-the-big-12-have-more-playoff-contenders-than-the-sec
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