The Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) will try to break a six-game series losing streak against the Denver Broncos (1-0) when they meet at Arrowhead Stadium Thursday night. The Broncos are 4-2 against the spread in winning the past six meetings, but they will be underdogs for just the second time during that stretch.
Point spread: The Chiefs opened as two-point favorites; the total was 45 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).
NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 18.6-18.3 Chiefs
Why the Broncos can cover the spread
Denver is a somewhat dangerous team right now because many so-called NFL experts are beginning to seriously question quarterback Peyton Manning's arm strength and whether this will be his last year before he retires. Whenever a future Hall of Famer such as Manning is doubted by naysayers, he usually answers those critics with a huge performance.
The Broncos are unbeaten versus the Chiefs since Manning signed with them as a free agent, and they won 29-16 at Arrowhead last year as one-point road underdogs. Even though he did not throw a touchdown pass last week in a 19-13 win over the Baltimore Ravens, the defense played well enough to help cover as 4.5-point chalk.
Why the Chiefs can cover the spread
Kansas City was motivated to win its season opener on the road after losing the first game a year ago at home, and the team responded with an impressive 27-20 victory against the Houston Texans last Sunday as a one-point road favorite.
The Chiefs should be even more motivated to end their skid against Denver, especially in a nationally televised game. They are 5-1 straight up and ATS in their past six games as home favorites, the exception being last year’s meeting with the Broncos.
Kansas City has the offensive weapons to match Denver on the scoreboard this season with the addition of wide receiver Jeremy Maclin and the emergence of tight end Travis Kelce.
Smart pick
Picking a side in this game comes down to how you feel about Manning at this stage of his career. If you think he has some magic left in him, this is the game he will prove himself and earn another win for the Broncos in this AFC West rivalry. If you don’t feel that way, the Chiefs seem like an easy play because they are long overdue for a big win in the series.
Dating back to late last year, Manning does not seem to be the same player, so take Kansas City to end its drought and win this one by at least a touchdown.
Betting trends
- The Broncos are 6-0 SU in their last six games against the Chiefs.
- The Broncos are 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.
- The Chiefs are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games as home favorites.
All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.
via http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2567037-denver-broncos-vs-kansas-city-chiefs-betting-odds-analysis-nfl-pick
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