LSU has won six of the last eight meetings with SEC West rival Auburn, but War Eagle has covered the spread in the last three meetings, and in seven of the last 10. Big games comes early in the SEC, and that's the case for Saturday afternoon's Tigers vs. Tigers tango at Death Valley.
Point spread: LSU opened as 6.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.9-19.7 LSU
Why the Auburn Tigers can cover the spread
Auburn is 2-0 after surviving the upset attempt of Jacksonville State Saturday 27-20 in overtime. The Tigers scored with 39 seconds left to tie the game, then won it on a Peyton Barber four-yard touchdown run in overtime. Realistically, there's not much good to say about Auburn's performance Saturday, other than they made just enough plays to win.
Two weeks ago AU opened the season with a 31-24 victory over Louisville, but missed on the cover as a 10-point favorite by giving up two meaningless scores in the last six minutes of the game.
The Tigers only returned four starters on offense this season, and while quarterback Jeremy Johnson hasn't met expectations yet, it's still early. Eight starters returned on defense, which is operating under new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp. Bettors might be wise to avoid judging this squad based on last week's performance.
Why the LSU Tigers can cover the spread
LSU opened its season, and its SEC slate, Saturday with a 21-19 victory at Mississippi State. The Tigers led 14-0 after one quarter and 21-6 after three, but as three-point favorites in a tough place to play, let the cover slip away when they allowed the Bulldogs to score twice in the fourth quarter. LSU outrushed MSU 266-43 and held the ball for over 33 minutes, and numbers like that are usually good for the cash.
The Tigers were supposed to open their season two weeks ago, but their game with McNeese State was canceled due to lightning.
LSU returned 15 starters this season, six on defense and eight on offense, including Heisman candidate running back Leonard Fournette, who rolled up 159 yards on the ground Saturday. If the Tigers can win Saturday, they stand a great chance of being 8-0 when they visit Tuscaloosa on November 7.
Smart pick
Auburn destroyed LSU last year 41-7, so the Bayou Bengals might have revenge on their minds Saturday. The previous time LSU lost to Auburn was back in 2010; LSU won the next meeting 45-10. The smart money here resides with the home team, minus the points.
Betting trends
Auburn is 4-1 ATS in its last five games against LSU.
The total has gone under in six of LSU's last seven games.
LSU is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games against the SEC at home.
All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.
via http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2566975-auburn-tigers-vs-lsu-tigers-betting-odds-analysis-college-football-pick
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