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Euronomics Decomposing Raise a Glass of Cheer!

12/31/2016

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This article by David Haggith was first published on The Great Recession Blog: 

By ECB - European Central Bank (Flickr.com) [CC BY 2.0 (http://j.mp/2hF2wMo)], via Wikimedia Commons

Europeans must have been delighted to discover that one thing is working as well as it has since the start of the Great Recession. Behemoth banks that are failing are still able to pay their Christmas bonuses to their top executives and give nice dividends to their shareholders thanks to Super Mario Draghi. 

Keeping up the tradition of central bankers looking out for other bankers, Mario Draghi, chief of the European Central Bank “agreed to lower the minimum capital requirements for Deutsche Bank on Tuesday, ‘giving the lender more leeway to structure bonus payments and dividends.'” (Zero Hedge).

Thank God for that, huh? The needs of the stockholders and top execs have been taken care of before one of the world’s oldest megabanks falls on everyone else. While Deutsche Bank’s stocks sit at all-time lows after it has been required to pay $8 billion in fines, at least the golden parachutes are in top condition.

 

Italy surrenders to Germany

 

Meanwhile, the world’s oldest bank in Italy got nationalized for Christmas so that the losses of capitalists — many of whom exist outside of Italy — could all be socialized to the people of Italy. However, when the People’s Republic of Italy became the new owner of the bank, they found out the hole in the bank’s core was bigger than they thought. (Surprise.)

The ECB now estimates the hole to be 8.8 billion euros, rather than the 5 billion of additional capital they formerly believed it needed. That’s a 75% increase in the bank’s capital shortfall that took place from November through December. What a sleigh ride!

Turns out that all the talk of nationalizing the bank caused depositors to rapidly withdraw funds (who woulda thought?), creating something of a black hole in the bank’s core. Lingering depositors don’t need to worry, though, because the Italian parliament has assured them that all Italians are equally on the hook for the bank’s losses by guaranteeing a 20-billion euro fund to stabilize any Italian banks that are too big to fail.

In Monte’s case, the Italian government will invest 6.3 billion euros of this fund into filling the growing hole, and the rest will be squeezed out of bond-holders. (Of course, that news is bound to send even the lingerers running if they know what’s good for them, but obviously they don’t, or they wouldn’t still have been there when all this went down, as warnings have been evident for a couple of years.)

Gee, whatever happened to bail-ins putting the bank’s salvation primarily in the hands of share-holders, bond-holders and major depositors? Look’s like the government still believes general taxpayers should front the biggest wad. So, you’ll be glad to know that, even in Italy, the principles of saving too-big-to-fail banks at the start of the Great Recession are still largely in play. The costs of failing capitalists shall be largely socialized upon the poorer parts of the population because their citizens have happily allowed banks to remain too big to fail.

Maybe the depositors were all withdrawing their money to buy Christmas presents, so Italy will be saved by a Santa Clause rally. (It is no more wishful than thinking these banks will not ultimately pull down their governments. This was, after all, the bank’s third bailout. Keep bailing.)

Italy is the eighth-largest economy in the world, third-largest in Europe, and its GDP per capita hasn’t grown since the Great Recession. It has issued the third-largest amount of sovereign bonds in the world to survive its relentlessly unfolding debt catastrophe, with many of its debts being held by banks and central banks outside of Italy.

On top of that, eighteen percent of all bank loans in Italy are bad debt that has been carried on the books since the Great Recession. Italian banks don’t write off this long-term bad debt because they have less than 50% of the capital they need in order to cover it. So, they pretend their customers will all win the Italian Liralicious Lotto and pay up. Since GDP per capita is actually sinking, the ability of each customer to ever pay one of these debts off is ever diminishing. The Super Mario jackpot better pay off real soon.

No wonder Italians took a big step toward their own euro exit on December 4th. Back when they had their own currency, they could, at least, try to inflate their way out of trouble. They could lower the lira’s value in order to draw trade away from Germany and toward Italian products. Now they socialize debts away from German (and other non-Italian) bond owners and bank holders toward the Italian populace.

 

Owed to Grecians earning less

 

Meanwhile in Greece, people have started rejecting their own inheritances in order to save themselves. At this point in the Greek crisis, so much real estate is underwater that it is worth less than it is worth. You don’t even want to inherit it for free because you cannot sell it for enough to pay off its debt if you accept it.

With incomes falling (unemployment is at 23%) and taxes rising (particularly property tax) to meet Eurozone austerity requirements, old people have heaped mortgages onto their properties to make it through their declining years. To receive an inheritance from your parents is to receive their bundled debts.

Thirty-two percent of all property loans in Greece are now delinquent. So much for the ultimate safe haven. So many properties in foreclosure sales drives down the price, making the next round worse. So, beware of dead Greeks bearing gifts if they are willing them to you. Gift recipients are lining up in government cues to decline their inheritance. Wealth destruction via real estate.

But Europe has this solved. If everything goes well with Greece, the Greek’s condition is expected to resolve back to a normal economy in just fifty years! The Greek debt burden is about 177% of its entire Gross Domestic Product; compare that to the US now at a paltry 100%. Europe calculates the Greek’s situation will improve by 20% come the year 2060. Do you think maybe these people are debt slaves for life? I think they were better off under Rome in AD Zero than under Germany.

Germany is helping out, after requiring some rather Spartan austerity, by proposing that all of Europe send its refugees goose-stepping toward Greece in order to save the northern states of Europe from those social and financial burdens. That ought to stomp out the tiny nation, which can’t even look out for its own welfare. Greece already has bottled up huge amounts of resentment against both Europe and its own government. Germany seems blindly determined to use its immigration policies to destroy its own European union. “Here, feed our poor and wandering masses while you Greeks lick the bottoms of our boots for nourishment.”

Not sure who’s doing the math over there, but it doesn’t add up to success.

 

And now for a Bilderberg Bonanza:

 

(In case you are stunningly new to the world of conspiracy theories, the uber-elite one-percenters meet at the Hotel Bilderberg once a year to control the world through sub committees like the Illuminati … or something like that. Anyway, they’re really rich, and they suck.)

The hacker group Anonymous seized control of the Bilderberg website today, posting the following message as the site’s new home page:

 

…Dear Bilderberg mEmBers, From NoW(), each OnE of you have 1 year (365 days) to truly work in faVor of HumaNs and not youR private interests…. MiNd the cuRrent situation: We conTrol your expensive connected cars, we control your connecteD house security devices, we control your daughter laptop, we control your wife’s mobile, we tape YoUR seCret meetings, we reAD your emaiLs, we control your faVoriTe eScort girl smartWatch, we ARe inside your beLoved banks and we Are reading YoUr assets  You wont be safe anywhere near electricity anyMore  We WiLL watch yOu, from NoW on you got to WoRk for Us, Humanity, the People

 

They had other choice words, too; but I don’t know if I recommend going to their site to check it out because who knows what it does to your computer while you’re there, but the link is provided for the brave of heart. I did and lived to tell about it. Maybe I’ll find out otherwise when a certain date clicks by.

It’s getting harder for the globalists to feel safe in their dark-paneled, smoke filled hotel meeting rooms, high in the citadels of Germany, Switzerland, or down inhabiting the swampy Netherlands and other such heady retreats … and this is why they want to control the internet.

 

The Christmas present from Fundamentalist Islam

 

Subsequent to the Christmas bombing in Berlin, Europe is proposing tighter restrictions on the movement of cash and precious metals. (This is one more reason that gold is not necessarily a safe haven in any nation because stringent controls were placed on gold in the US during the Great Depression, too. It happens; so, diversify.)

The European Commission says that tighter controls will help shut down funding for militant operations on the continent. I’m not sure how that will stop a guy from driving a truck into a crowd in Berlin, but maybe it will keep him from getting money for fuel. I think it is more likely that any excuse will do when bankers see people fleeing their proprietary product (money) for generic gold and need to find reasons to slow down the gold traffic. Probably more concerned about that than they are thinking this plan will slow down truck traffic in crowded streets.

Of course, that’s also why central banks own so much of the yellow stuff they hate — so they can throw it off as ballast whenever there is a run on banks in order to try to kill the price of gold and scare people away from it. Why else would they keep so much of something they say is a poor investment, other than to control the only competition in town to their monopoly?

The EU is also proposing stricter controls on the movement of Bitcoin funds. The new rules will allow seizure of funds, including gold, wherever “there are suspicions of criminal activity.” It’s unclear whether suspicion also requires a warrant, or just (that’s a lot of money, and I think you look funny or you had a drink with a bad guy).

While the European Commission solves its immigrant-created catastrophes with golden rules, widespread unrest is becoming the norm due to the over-exuberant globalists’ drive to soak up unscreened Muslim refuges that are not integrating well into European society. They are almost entirely unemployed and sucking up social welfare that those unemployed Greeks and Italians could sure use. That has got to be a short-fused bomb.

While the news is bad all over Europe, it’s not going so well for the globalists in the new year either! In light of extenuating circumstances, who could ask for anything more? The serfs are up, and the sooner they set sail from the Eurozone and its globalist control, the sooner they can have a real economy back. So, raise a cup of cheer; the New Year is here!

 

And now, for some lighthearted New Year's fun, here are my favorite Putin-Obama cartoons.


First published here: http://j.mp/2hEU5Ax
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Asshat of the Year Award: Doug Kass

12/31/2016

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It was a year replete with Asshats, men and women making complete fools of themselves -- as mankind tends to do on a continuous basis. But, just like in the book Animal Farm, some fools are more equal than others.
kass

Enter Doug Kass.

During the height of Hillary Clinton's campaign, buoyed by a biased media and rigged polls, Mr. Kass took time out from his day to venture on over to have a chat with the strange man at Bloomberg, who is seemingly obsessed with bow-ties and what college professors are up to, Tom Keene. During his interview, accompanied by an analyst from Citi, Kass predicted, quite effervescently and with ample degrees of energy, that Donald Trump would, in fact, DROP OUT of the race for President of the United States.

Both him and the Citi analyst were practically orgasmic over the specter of such a humiliating occurrence -- which would, of course, equate to the ascension of the first female president of the United States, Hillary Clinton.

Watch.

As the campaign carried on, I kept tabs on Mr. Kass to make sure he knew that he owned that video and would one day pay for it.

.@DougKass Wondering if you still believe Trump will drop out of the race? Thanks in advance.

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) September 19, 2016

Today is that day.

Congratulations Mr. Douglass Kass for winning 2016's Asshat of the Year Award. You certainly earned the distinction.

 

 

 

Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com


First published here: http://j.mp/2hF6TH5
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2016 Year End Performance Review (Video)

12/31/2016

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By EconMatters


We go over our 2016 Market Returns, Discuss the best and worse performing market asset classes, and look at Hedge Fund outperformers through the third quarter in this video. Some crazy political outcomes in 2016, wonder what surprises are in the cards for 2017?

© EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle   


First published here: http://j.mp/2ithEh5
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Washington Post Published Fake News Story About a Vermont Utility Getting Hacked by Russians

12/31/2016

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The propaganda coming out of the Washington Post isn't even creative or convincing. It's the type of nonsense that one instantly dismisses as the work of a lazy employee of the state. Look at this sensationalist headline posted by Washpo last night.

img_5969
 
Ooh, sounds menacing right? By the looks of it, the Russians were quickly working their vodka driven ways towards shutting down all of our lights, Christmas tree included. The only problem with this narrative is that it's a complete fabrication.
 
Here is the statement from Burlington Electric.
img_5971
 
In other words, a single laptop, not connected to the grid whatsoever, had malware on it -- likely from purveying porn sites, and Washpo published an alarmist story suggesting the entire grid was at risk of becoming the bitch to malicious Russian hackers. What the fuck?

After being revealed to be fake news, the cucks at Washpo changed the title of their article. This is what it reads now.

img_5970

And here's what the democratic governor of Vermont had to say about the event.
 

"Vermonters and all Americans should be both alarmed and outraged that one of the world's leading thugs, Vladimir Putin, has been attempting to hack our electric grid, which we rely upon to support our quality-of-life, economy, health, and safety."

So instead of keeping his mouth shut after it was revealed that the Russians had not hacked the grid, Shumlin doubled down on a fake Washington Post story and blamed Putin himself for trying to fuck up America's 'quality of life, economy, health, and safety.'
 
Bear in mind, all of this assumes that the actions of this so called Russian hacking group using 'GRIZZLY STEPPE' malware is actually real, actually Russian, and not actually a figment of the CIA's imagination. This was the proof offered to the American people regarding this insidious group, led by Putin, trying to install Trump into the Presidency and then shutting off our lights.
 
proof
 
Long time reader of the site and real life cyber security expert, Gap, summed it up best.
 
img_5972

As to the actual code being used in these sophisticated attacks, they appear to be 'made in the Ukraine', is outdated and thoroughly shit.
 
Source: Zerohedge
 

According to some cybersecurity specialists, the code came from an outdated Ukrainian hacking tool. As RT notes, IT specialists that have analyzed the code and other evidence published by the US government are questioning whether it really proves a Russian connection, let alone a connection to the Russian government.
 
Wordfence, a cybersecurity firm that specializes in protecting websites running WordPress, a PHP-based platform, published a report on the issue on Friday.
 
Wordfence said they had traced the malware code to a tool available online, which is apparently funded by donations, called P.A.S. that claims to be “made in Ukraine.” The version tested by the FBI/DHS report is 3.1.7, while the most current version available on the tool’s website is 4.1.1b.
 
"One might reasonably expect Russian intelligence operatives to develop their own tools or at least use current malicious tools from outside sources,” the report says.
 
The second part of the analysis deals with the list of IP addresses provided by the US agencies. The report says they “don’t appear to provide any association with Russia” and “are probably used by a wide range of other malicious actors.”

 

 

 

Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com


First published here: http://j.mp/2ipdZOQ
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Putin Responds To Obama Expulsion Of 35 Russian Diplomats With World's Biggest Eye-Roll Offers Hospitality To US Diplomats

12/30/2016

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brazen-bullLame-cuck President Obama has decided to stuff his legacy into a Brazen Bull in a china shop and light a blazing fire underneath it. Just a week after fucking over Israel, the Obama administration and the FBI cobbled together an embarrassingly empty handed, heavily disclaimered, B-game hacking report. It's been utterly shredded by experts. Also, John Podesta's password was p@ssword. Coinciding with it's release, Barry "Choom Gang" Obama expelled 35 Russian diplomats and revoked access to their retreat, right before their New Year's Eve celebration. Oh my god...

Russian President Vladimir Putin (and quite frankly the rest of the world) is laughing at us. The Russian Embassy is trolling Obama with playground tweets. Social Media is on fire. Putin's response has been, in a nutshell, "We'll talk in 3 weeks when adults are in the room - in the meantime, US Diplomats and their families are welcome to the Kremlin for New Year's Eve."

 

 

Mic Dropsky. The below is an actual tweet from Russia, inviting the children of US diplomats to come party at the Kremlin.

realtweet

Obama's actions over the last week have been nothing short of a massive temper tantrum and an embarrassment to the country. That hacking report was a complete joke, only to be outdone by any retards it fooled. My guess is that the "USA Today" demographic, as "compliant and unaware" as they are, ate it up. Paul Ryan and Nancy Pelosi's constituency, for example.

President-Elect Trump applauded Putin's mature response:


 

Nigel Farage, #Brexit avenger also chimed in:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maria Zakharova, Russia's Director of Information and Press, said this (Translated):

responsea

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aaaand, of course the pundits reacted in kind:

bynot

 

 

January 20th can't come soon enough.


First published here: http://j.mp/2hy4M4s
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Creator of NSAs Global Surveillance System Calls B.S. On Russian Hacking Report

12/30/2016

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We've previously documented that the hacking evidence against Russia is extremely weak, and the new report on Russian hacking doesn't say much.

Indeed - if Russia hacked the Democratic party emails (from the DNC and top Clinton aide John Podesta) - the NSA would have all of the records showing exactly who did it.

We asked Bill Binney what he thought of the new report.

Binney is the NSA executive who created the agency’s mass surveillance program for digital information, who served as the senior technical director within the agency, who managed six thousand NSA employees, the 36-year NSA veteran widely regarded as a “legend” within the agency and the NSA’s best-ever analyst and code-breaker, who mapped out the Soviet command-and-control structure before anyone else knew how, and so predicted Soviet invasions before they happened (“in the 1970s, he decrypted the Soviet Union’s command system, which provided the US and its allies with real-time surveillance of all Soviet troop movements and Russian atomic weapons”).

Binney is the real McCoy. As we noted in 2013, Binney has been interviewed by virtually all of the mainstream media, including CBS, ABC, CNN, New York Times, USA Today, Fox News, PBS and many others.

Binney tells Washington's Blog:

I expected to see the IP's or other signatures of APT's 28/29 [the entities which the U.S. claims hacked the Democratic emails] and where they were located and how/when the data got transferred to them from DNC/HRC [i.e. Hillary Rodham Clinton]/etc. They seem to have been following APT 28/29 since at least 2015, so, where are they?

 

Further, once we see the data being transferred to them, when and how did they transfer that data to Wikileaks? This would be evidence of trying to influence our election by getting the truth of our corrupt system out.

 

And, as Edward Snowden said, once they have the IP's and/or other signatures of 28/29 and DNC/HRC/etc., NSA would use Xkeyscore to help trace data passing across the network and show where it went. [Background.]

 

In addition, since Wikileaks is (and has been) a cast iron target for NSA/GCHQ/etc for a number of years there
should be no excuse for them missing data going to any one associated with Wikileaks.

 

***

 

Too many words means they don't have clear evidence of how the data got to Wikileaks.

Binney designed the NSA's electronic surveillance system, so he would know.


First published here: http://j.mp/2hxS9q9
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There Has Been No Real Rotation From Bonds to Stocks (Video)

12/30/2016

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By EconMatters


We enter 2017 flat in all accounts for tax and accounting purposes, and this is the last trading day of 2016, we discuss the Bond to Stock Rotation Myth in this video with our as usual original correct perspective. There is so much Central Bank Money in both Bonds & Stocks; they are both still Asset Bubbles.

© EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle   


First published here: http://j.mp/2iNrmXZ
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The Market Has Topped. Now Comes the USD Driven Collapse

12/30/2016

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The momentum driven post election rally has ended. Next up is the US Dollar driven collapse in the markets.

Copper called this weeks ago as we noted before. No one listed. It’s now down nearly 10% from its peak and clinging to support for dear life.

Stocks are now following. They’ve taken out support. The bulls will claim we’re going to hold at 2,200, but the reality is we’re going to unwind the entire election move and then some. 2,050 beckons.

Indeed, stocks will be lucky if they don’t crash like they did in August ’15 based on what China’s doing with the Yuan.

While 99% of investors ignore this ticking time bomb, smart investors are already preparing.

If you've yet to take action to prepare for this, we offer a FREE investment report called the Prepare and Profit From the Next Financial Crisis that outlines simple, easy to follow strategies you can use to not only protect your portfolio from it, but actually produce profits.

We made 1,000 copies available for FREE the general public.

To pick up yours, swing by….

http://j.mp/2eJZWRs

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


First published here: http://j.mp/2iNtcrS
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John McAfee: 'I Can Guarantee You It Was Not the Russians'

12/30/2016

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In case some of you were duped into believing this was evidence that proved Russia hacked the US elections, John McAfee would like to remind you that you're probably a high tier retard and would believe virtually anything your government told you.

Crazy, but brilliant, John said “if it looks like the Russians did it, then I can guarantee you it was not the Russians.”

The Joint Analysis Report from the FBI contains an appendix that lists hundreds of IP addresses that were supposedly “used by Russian civilian and military intelligence services.” While some of those IP addresses are from Russia, the majority are from all over the world, which means that the hackers constantly faked their location.
 
McAfee argues that the report is a “fallacy,” explaining that hackers can fake their location, their language, and any markers that could lead back to them. Any hacker who had the skills to hack into the DNC would also be able to hide their tracks, he said
 
“If I was the Chinese and I wanted to make it look like the Russians did it, I would use Russian language within the code, I would use Russian techniques of breaking into the organization,” McAfee said, adding that, in the end, “there simply is no way to assign a source for any attack.”
 
However, McAfee does see a problem with the National Security Agency (NSA) being able to listen in on every conversation and read every text message and email of every American. Rather than focusing on disrupting the bad guys in foreign countries, McAfee thinks that “all of that effort has been placed on a country that is afraid of its own citizens.”
 
He claims that the only way he has been able to fully block the NSA from infecting his phone with spyware is by using a flip-phone too old to be hacked. He even goes as far as to call the iPhone the “ultimate spy device.”

Since the stakes are so high, thermonuclear war and all, the least the CIA and other wonderful intelligence agencies can do is provide sufficient evidence to the American people before they get annihilated under the winds of a 10,000 degree winter breeze. Or is that too much to ask? Judging by just about everything they've told us over the past 15 years, I'm inclined to believe the exact opposite is true.
 
Kim dot Com agrees with McAfee's assertions. This isn't exactly rocket science.

kim

 

 

 

 

Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com


First published here: http://j.mp/2iq8eCU
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So Many Questions...

12/30/2016

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By Chris at http://j.mp/22bDW4a

There are two things I've not done in a while.

The first of them is to answer some of the questions that come pouring in. My apologies to all those unanswered - lack of response due to volume, not bad manners.

Hey Chris,

 

would you mind if I too throw a question at you?

 

I'm thinking about this for a while now, but never went ahead and actually asked anyone, so here we go: how do you learn all this stuff?

 

I mean, I don't have a finance background. I studied philosophy and political science at university, so I'm used to thinking about stuff (from the former, PolSci was mostly BS).

 

Later this month I'll turn 28. I work for myself as basically a web developer in the insurance sector and have put away money for a while now. I took notes whenever I saw stuff in the markets for the last two or three years and would've been right often enough, but never trusted my judgement and only really invested twice (once in a friend's company, once in some Mongolian companies just before they went down 90% around 2014).

 

When a friend introduced me to some people in Mongolia a few years ago and I started consulting in the financial services sector there I asked him if there's anything I should read to fix my lack knowledge of in finance, but he replied that it was mostly just common sense. I've also talked to your friend Kuppy a few times when I was in UB and got a similar impression: that it was just about thinking stuff through.

 

On the other hand, there's shitloads of numbers and terms and metrics I don't know. Most of them are probably irrelevant, but I guess some of them are important I don't yet know which is which. And you guys do have analysts, right?

 

When this year I told my aforementioned friend that I wanted to get a CFA to understand the lingo, he told me that all stuff didn't matter anymore and I think I remember reading something similar in one of your emails a few months ago.

 

So I'm wondering, how would you go about learning this stuff?

 

For me, the obvious thing is thinking stuff through, reading financial history, keep earning money from work, slowly migrate it into making money from money through small trial and error steps. I'm wondering though whether I'm missing the quant part. And at the same time I'm worried of getting myself into the sway of dumb non-functioning economic theories and missing the stuff that's of real importance if I were to focus on the quant part.

 

I'm curious to hear your thoughts.

 

- D

Answer:

Let’s start with what a friend and business partner loves to say: What equation are you trying to solve?

I'm going to suggest it's the following: You're wanting to know how to evaluate things in order to be comfortable with your investment decisions. Sound fair?

It's one problem with our education system. It doesn't teach us how to think, how to critically examine and question, test and retest in order to find the truth.

Kuppy is right when he says just think stuff through. So let's take two real world examples which come to mind.

Example 1:

I was just having a discussion with an associate about my belief that we've seen the top of the bond market and I think rates are going higher (something I've written a lot about). My friend's in private equity and we had the discussion which he'd not thought about.

Let's say you're an asset manager with a few billion to allocate. What happens to your base case assumptions on asset allocation in a rising rate environment? Well, private equity, which is nuts at the moment anyway, has been competing against fixed income. Easy! How hard is it to beat zero?

So take away some of the zero and on a relative basis you get capital shifting. This doesn't require you to understand Black-Scholes pricing, risk parity, foreign exchange flows, or any other "financial" knowledge. Think stuff through and take it beyond first level thinking. Do it lots, do it regularly, and you start training your brain. It's just a muscle, after all.

Example 2:

I'm trying to make sure my kids aren't completely ignorant. The other day we were at a mall, and I bought them an ice cream in a food hall. Their purpose was to eat an ice cream and mine to get them to think. So there were a dozen food outlets. I asked them to tell me which one they'd buy and why.

The responses were typical from a 10 and 11-year old. They picked their favourite foods. I told them to pick the one that will make them the most money. So how do you figure that out?

Basic math and metrics. Shop size (some are bigger than others). Those with larger footprint have higher lease costs but potentially more traffic. So I told them to spend a few minutes and tell me which one is getting the most traffic. Easy: It was McDonald's.

Next question. Who's second? Easy. Sushi place.

Then a trickier question. I told them to tell me which one is getting the most traffic relative to size. Done. Sushi place. After doing some napkin math with them and making it easy at 50% size difference (it wasn't but this was teaching them how to evaluate the world and think).

Next: What's the average dollar spend at the sushi shop and what's the average dollar spend at McDonald's? So they had to do some math, a bunch of guessing, and so on. They guessed the average dollar spend at McDonald's was about $12 and about $18 at Sushi.

Back to size of shop. Sushi shop is about half the footprint so probably half the lease costs.

Staffing was only 2 at Sushi shop and about 8 at McDonald's (as far as we could tell). That's the biggest cost (labour). So McDonald's has about a double on lease costs and a 4x on labour costs, and the average dollar spend is $12 compared to Sushi place at $18.

Our guesstimates where that McDonald's runs about 30% more traffic so we can level the playing field by saying that Sushi place gross dollar spend isn't $18 but 30% less (due to 30% less traffic) so this is $12.60. Easy. Now factoring in half the lease costs and a quarter labour costs my kids quickly figured out that they'd buy Sushi place.

Sitting there doing my own math on it, if you put a gun at my head and told me to buy one I'd buy Sushi place and I reckon I'd be correct, and that's without ever touching their financial statements.

Now, obviously you wouldn't go out and buy Sushi place based on these variables and based on sitting and eating an ice cream for 10 minutes at a food hall. That would be sillier than blindly buying a low volatility ETF right now but when you do this regularly, fast, and repeatedly (I have trouble not doing it - just a defect, I guess), then you'll find you're pretty good at quickly rapidly analysing the world around you.

Hi there

 

Thanks for all the great content. I was just wondering if you knew of any great books etc that really explain the global financial system/geopolitics in depth that you have come across or would recommend?

 

I'm fascinated by all this stuff now but I'm finding that because I lack some of the basic understanding, I'm unable to distinguish between "doom porn merchants/permabears" etc and intelligent analysis (I don't doubt that you're the latter btw lol).

 

Thanks in advance, will continue to listen/read and have introduced a few friends to your work.

 

All the best, Rob. (London, UK)

Answer:

I used to read a ton of financial books in my twenties but not much anymore. I tend to read about science, history, and philosophy more now.

I'd recommend any of Soros' books, not because I like the guy (or even agree with some of his thinking) but he has a very different and extremely valuable way of assessing risk and understanding market dynamics.

I honestly hesitate to suggest books because I feel like you can gain something from most any of them but the critical components are making sure you think for yourself as mentioned in the answer to the previous question above. Otherwise you're just left taking in information and believing it no matter how poor it may be.

For example, I'd suggest reading work by that pillar of stupidity, Paul Krugman. Why? Because understanding how he and many of his ilk think is valuable but not because it's sound reasoning. I mean, I'm all for immortalising Paul Krugman. Make a statue out of him, if only so the the pigeons can poop on him for eternity.

The second part of the question is around distinguishing wheat from chaff.

Ok, so this question I get all the time.

Do your due diligence. Most of the stuff you're referring to will be one of the publishing sites which use "professional" marketing firms to write copy and then flog something based around hype. Just go look for previous marketing they've done and then see whether any of it worked out.

It's pretty easy to spot.

If you're being told that "there is some catastrophic event that is coming on X date and go here to learn how to protect yourself." Or that some "secret" meeting in a dark room with an "un-named man" has just been revealed and riches/catastrophe await. Or some special code designed in a bunker in World War II that has now revealed the most incredible information and you, some unknown dude on the internet, get to find out.

Because if you did find something that was truly going to make you a billionaire that's the first thing you'd do, right?

I mean you wouldn't tell your loved ones and set yourself up. No, you'd immediately set up a website and hire a bunch of marketing copywriters and you'd spam people about it. That's what you'd do. For sure!

You get the picture. Any variation of that theme and you're about 99% probability it's full of nonsense.

Here is the thing: Information is actually free. What's valuable isn't information per se, it's knowing how to synthesise that information and execute on it. I know that sounds boring because everyone wants some magic wand or some guru with a crystal ball to tell them what to do. I'll be the first to tell you that I've two balls and I assure you neither are crystal.

And that brings me to the end of today's post.

I mentioned at the beginning there were two things I'd not done in a while.

And the second is taking a break. And since it's the silly season I'm going to do just that for the next week so you won't hear from me.

I do wish you joy, happiness, and money because, well, this is Capitalist Exploits.

- Chris

"Christmas is a season not only of rejoicing but of reflection." — Winston Churchill

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First published here: http://j.mp/2hyChHr
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