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First published here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-31/happy-new-fear-2016

Slope of Hope celebrated its 10th anniversary last March, and during the course of 2015, thousands of interesting charts and articles were published. Here's a sampling of the best of them:

• The Charlie X Solution - my response to the Charlie Hebdo killings. I think this is some of the finest writing I've ever done. Sadly, the world has not taken me up on my brilliant plan.
• Perfect Palo Alto - in which I examine the hiring of guards at the train tracks to try to reduce the number of Palo Alto high school students throwing themselves in front of locomotives.
• Learning to Learn - some lessons I took away as I tried my hand at binary trading.
• Relativity - a very interesting success story about how my method of trading was able to prosper in the face of what seemed like very dire circumstances.
• The Time Warp Again - if I may say so, an really good post about how much the Silicon Valley has changed since when I was in my teens.
• Ten Years of Hope - celebrating Slope of Hope's 10th anniversary
• Negative Interest - in which I despair about my almost total lack of interest in the market at the time. Not surprisingly, this was almost exactly the peak of the entire world of equities.
• Do You Want to Know a Secret? - wherein I tear apart another idiotic startup.
• Transports Less than 2% Away From Failure - here I call for the Dow Transports to begin dropping hard. I, umm, was correct.
• Silicon Shark Jumps the Shark - a snarky overview of the so-called Startup Castle. Out of curiosity, I clicked on the link, and it goes straight to a 404 page. Figures.

I hope you enjoy some of these! Happy 2016, ZH-ers. Let's some some reality starts breaking the walls down.

First published here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-31/slopes-best-posts-2015

There was some Grade A beef this year.

Meek Mill Vs. Drake

When: July 2015
What Happened: So Meek accused Drake of not writing his own raps, and instead of responding via Twitter, Drake dropped TWO diss tracks: "Changed Up" and the Grammy nominated "Back to Back."

Alberto E. Rodriguez / Kevin Winter / Anopdesignstock / Getty Images

Nicki Minaj Vs. Taylor Swift

When: July 2015
What Happened: Nicki expressed in a series of tweets how she felt snubbed by the VMAs and how if she were "a different kind of artist" she would have gotten the nomination. One of the tweets seemed to call out Taylor Swift, who took the tweet personally and responded.

Mark Ralston / Larry Busacca / Anopdesignstock / Getty Images

Katy Perry Vs. Taylor Swift

When: July 2015
What Happened: Just when it seemed the Nicki Vs. Taylor feud was a thing of the past, Katy Perry jumped in with a subtweet of her own — which Nicki favorited.

Alberto E. Rodriguez / Larry Busacca / Anopdesignstock / Getty Images

Louis Tomlinson Vs. Zayn Malik

When: May 2015
What Happened: After Louis subtweeted a pic of Zayn and his producer Naughty Boy, Naughty Boy took shots at Louis's vocals. Louis then dissed him back, UNTIL FINALLY Zayn stepped in, telling Louis he had no life.

Stuart C. Wilson / Kevin Winter / Anopdesignstock / Getty Images

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View Entire List ›

First published here: http://www.buzzfeed.com/michelleregna/trigger-fingers-turn-to-twitter-fingers?utm_term=4ldqpia

The year before elections is almost always the best year for stocks.

Investors notes:

Pre-election years takes the top spot as the best-performing year for stocks.

UBS reports:

Ahead of US Presidential Elections  (Pre-Election Year or Year 3 and Election Year or Year 4) politicians often promote an accommodating and pro-business agenda so that the economy is  strong,  stock  market  is  bullish,  and  voters  are  upbeat  heading
to the polls.

The Stock Trader’s Almanac notes (via a press release by publisher Wiley):

Pre-election years are notoriously the best year of the four-year cycle and fifth years of decades are the strongest, so 2015 has some solid history behind it,” says the Almanac’s Editor-in-chief Jeffrey A. Hirsch. “The Dow has not had a loss in a pre-election year since 1939.

But in 2015, the Dow closed down for the year … 2.2% into the red.

First published here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-31/2015-was-first-pre-election-year-end-red-great-depression

By EconMatters

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

© EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | Free Email | Kindle

First published here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-31/technical-analysis-corn-market

Filed under: Savings Experiment, Home & Garden, Did You Know

Did you know your water heater may be draining your savings dry? Here's why.

A poorly insulated water heater can cost you up to 10 percent more on your energy bill, which for some could be up to $10 a month. However, if you invest in a water heater blanket, you can keep the heat, and your savings, from escaping.

To test if you would benefit from a water heater blanket, simply put your hand on the heater. If it's warm to the touch, it's time to insulate.

A water heater blanket can cost as little as $20 and, depending on your bill, it could start paying for itself in just two months. So remember, using a water heater blanket can keep the heat up while bringing your costs down.

View Poll

 

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First published here: http://www.dailyfinance.com/2015/12/31/lower-energy-bill-water-heater-did-you-know-savings-experiment/

by Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

The precious metals sector will close 2015 entrenched in a seemingly forever bear market. Most of the sector has been in a bear market for over four and a half years. Gold’s bear market will reach four and a half years in a few months. Meanwhile the US Dollar’s bull market remains strong and is likely to continue. In this article we discuss our 2016 big picture outlook for the US Dollar, Gold and gold stocks.

The US Dollar index will be a major focus of 2016. The greenback is currently consolidating and correcting below important resistance at 100. A strong break above 100 could trigger a sharp move higher. Note that the other two bull markets in the US Dollar gained strength as they neared their end. A sharp move higher in 2016 may not sustain itself into 2017.

Gold’s bear market is likely to continue in 2016 but the following chart makes a strong case for its death before 2017. No bear market in Gold has lasted past October 2016 (based on the current scale). Furthermore, note that the three other long bear markets enjoyed much larger rallies during their bears. In weekly terms, Gold has not rebounded more than 11% in two years and has not rebounded more than 15% since the bear market began.

Gold’s monthly chart makes the same case that the bear market will continue in 2016 but likely end before 2017. Gold failed to hold $1180/oz and although it could rally in January 2016 it figures to test $970-$1000/oz. There are very strong support targets at $970/oz and $890/oz. Another leg higher in the greenback would likely coincide with Gold testing one or both of those targets. Be sure to keep in mind that Gold has a tendency to bottom several months ahead of peaks in the US Dollar.

The gold mining sector has been absolutely devastated. The current bear market is already the worst ever in price and if it lasts into the second quarter (2016) then it would be the longest ever. The following chart shows the bear markets in the gold mining stocks dating back nearly 80 years. It is hard to imagine the bear market lasting much longer than another quarter or two.

There are some positive signs for the gold stocks. First, the sector unlike Gold has not made a new low in recent months. That is a positive divergence. If gold stocks continue to hold their lows in the event of $1000 Gold, it would be a stronger bullish signal.

In addition, some recent macroeconomic developments have greatly improved the fundamentals for some parts of the sector. The crash in energy prices is a huge boon for companies who own or operate open pit mines. Fuel can amount to 30% of the cost for those mines. Also, companies operating mines in Canada and Australia are benefitting from the collapse in those currencies. The majority of their expenses are in local currencies which have lost quite a bit more value in the past few years than Gold. Some companies, because of these developments are in a better position than they were a year and two years ago.

While the long term downside risk for precious metals is quite low, we should note the likelihood of US Dollar strength and Gold testing lower levels before the bear market ends. That is the risk in 2016 but it would create an excellent buying opportunity. We remain cautious on the metals but are constructive on select companies which we expect to lead the eventual recovery. As we navigate the end of this bear market, consider learning more about our premium service including our favorite junior miners which we expect to outperform in 2016.

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

[email protected]

 

First published here: http://goldsilverworlds.com/gold-silver-insights/2016-outlook-for-precious-metals/

PREDICTIONS are hard, especially about the future, goes the adage. They may be hardest in digital technology, where the next big thing can come out of nowhere. Even so, market-research firms, big and small, stick their necks out at the end of each year on where the technology industry is headed. Inevitably, there is a great deal of inscrutable geekspeak in their reports. But with a bit of translation they add up to a useful picture of the prospects for the IT industry, and the businesses that buy its products and services.

IDC, one of the biggest such research firms, was early in identifying the shift to what it calls the “third platform”. The first platform for IT was the mainframe computer—a big, centralised processor with lots of dumb terminals connected to it. The second platform, which became dominant in the early 1990s, was the client-server model, in which processing power was divided between more slimline central “servers” and the PCs on workers’ desktops. The third platform is based on the online computing “cloud” and its interaction with all manner of devices, including wirelessly connected ones such as smartphones,...Continue reading

First published here: http://www.economist.com/news/business-and-finance/21684860-advent-robo-adviser-and-robo-boss-tech-pundits-tenuous-intriguing-prognostications?fsrc=rss

MY COLUMN this week sets out three possible scenarios for the American economy in 2016, in the aftermath of the Fed's first rate hike in more than nine years. Each scenario corresponds to an understanding of why it is that near-zero interest rates are so difficult to leave behind; economies eventually managed the trick in the decades after the Depression, but those that have sunk to the zero lower bound in recent years have been unable to escape it for long. 

What strikes me as interesting, and what motivated the column, is that our understanding of the pull of near-zero rates has evolved since late 2008, and continues to evolve, in a very ominous direction.

Back in late 2008 and early 2009, when rates around the rich world fell below 1%, the framework most economists reached...Continue reading

First published here: http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2015/12/zero-one-then-back-zero?fsrc=rss

 

 

 

 

Something Broke In The U.S. Silver Market

Posted with permission and written by Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL)

 

 

 

 

After looking over all the figures, it seems as if something broke in the U.S. Silver Market this year. By that, I mean the normal supply and demand forces no longer make sense. I believe this stemmed from the massive amount of physical silver investment demand beginning in June as financial and geopolitical events pushed the retail silver market into severe shortages.

To start off, the United States has been the largest importer of silver in the world for many years. Even though India has imported more silver recently, its annual amount has fluctuated widely, while the U.S. has been more consistent.

For example the U.S. silver imports have ranged between 4,500-6,000 metric tons (mt) a year, while India imported between 2,000-7,000 mt. Overall, the U.S. is the clear winner by importing a total of 39,500 mt of silver from 2007 to 2014, while India totaled 31,700 mt.

To put these metric ton figures into perspective… look below:

Total U.S. Silver Imports 2007-2014 = 1.27 billion oz

Total India Silver Imports 2007-2014 = 1.02 billion oz

The reason the U.S. imports so much silver is due to its large industrial silver manufacturing industry. Here were the top five industrial silver fabricators in 2014, according to the 2015 World Silver Survey:

China = 5,788 mt

U.S. = 3,902 mt

India = 1,470 mt

Germany = 652 mt

S. Korea = 652 mt

While China is the largest industrial silver fabricator in the world, it also produces a lot more domestic silver than the U.S. In 2014, China produced 3,568 mt of silver, while U.S domestic mine supply was only 1,169…. three times less. So, the U.S. must import more silver than China to meet its total fabrication needs.

Furthermore, the U.S. Mint has been producing more Silver Eagles each year, which requires additional imports of the metal. Now, with that basic ground work, let’s look at why the U.S. Silver Market dynamics were altered this year.

Something Changed In The U.S. Silver Market

As I mentioned in several articles, U.S. silver imports surged at the beginning of the year. This continued with another whopping 533 mt of silver imported in September for a total of 4,476 mt for the first three-quarters of the year:

Thus, total U.S. silver imports are up 798 mt from the 3,678 mt imported last year during the same time period. Which means, the U.S. imported an extra 25.6 million oz (Moz) of silver this year over last. That’s a lot of silver.

NOTE: These U.S. silver imports are bullion and dore bars. Silver bullion is high quality bullion ready to be used as investment or fabrication, while dore bars are semi-pure bars poured at the mines needing further refinement.

Why all this extra silver? Was it due to industrial demand? Well, let’s take a look. These next two charts show the change in U.S. industrial silver imports and exports (Q1-Q3) compared to last year:

According to the USGS, the U.S. imported more silver waste silver scrap (4,710 mt vs 3,690 mt), semi manufactured forms (795 mt vs 252 mt) and powdered silver (664 mt vs 436 mt) in the first three-quarters of 2014 compared to 2015. The total silver imports of these three industrial categories was 29% lower this year compared to 2014.

Okay, how about U.S. industrial silver exports:

Here we can see the same trend. The U.S. exported less silver waste scrap, semi manufactured forms and silver powder this year to date compared to the same period in 2014.

NOTE: There are two other categories of industrial silver imports-exports, however I did not include them as their total figures were much smaller than the three listed above. In addition, even though total U.S. silver waste scrap tonnage is significant (11,000 mt ytd), it turns out to be only worth 33 cents an ounce.

Now, if we take the net change for Q1-Q3 2014 vs 2015, this is the result:

As we can see in the chart above, the U.S. imported 798 mt of silver bullion and dore bars Q1-Q3 compared to last year, but industrial silver imports (silver powder & semi manufactured forms) were down an astonishing 771 mt and industrial silver exports were down 353 mt.

When I made the chart above, I only included the two fabricated silver components of semi manufactured forms and silver powder. So, as total silver imports surged, industrial silver imports plummeted while industrial silver exports declined significantly.

Again, why did the U.S. import so much more silver this year if industrial silver supply and demand were down considerably compared to last year. If U.S. silver imports continue to be strong for the remainder of the year, it could reach over 6,000 mt. The last time the U.S. imported that much silver was in 2011.

I went back and looked at the data for 2011 and found some surprising results. If we compare U.S. silver supply and demand for the first three-quarters of 2015 vs 2011, this is the outcome:

Even though the U.S. imported 284 mt more silver bullion and dore bars during the first three-quarters of 2011 than during the same period this year, industrial silver imports were 161 mt higher and industrial exports a staggering 1,150 mt larger. So, it made sense for the U.S. to import 6,300 mt of silver in 2011.

However, this wasn’t the case this year. So, again… where did this silver go? Maybe some of it went into the surging physical investment demand. If we look at the next chart, we can see that U.S. Silver Eagle sales hit a record 47 Moz this year:

While total Silver Eagle sales were 7 Moz higher this year versus 2011, the Comex silver inventories also fell from a high of 184 Moz in the beginning of July down to 158 Moz currently:

To sum this all up, the U.S. has imported 20% more silver in the first three-quarters of 2015 compared to last year while industrial demand has fallen considerably and the COMEX silver inventories declined 26 Moz from its peak.

So, for whatever reason… there is more silver coming into the U.S. than the market dictates. Of course, physical silver investment demand is much higher this year, but it doesn’t account for all the extra silver imports. Thus, some large entities must be acquiring silver off the radar.

Why Did The U.S. Silver Market Break From Its Normal Market Dynamics

According to the USGS silver import-export data, the U.S. Silver Market is behaving much different from previous years. As I stated, U.S. silver bullion and dore bar imports hit a record 6,000 mt in 2011. However, this was due to elevated industrial silver demand and exports.

This year, the U.S. is on track to import 6,000 mt, but industrial silver supply and industrial exports are down considerably. Which means, the huge increase in U.S. silver imports must be due to physical silver investment demand. This doesn’t make sense as the price of silver is trading at a four-year low.

As I mentioned, there was a large decline of silver inventories at the COMEX this year. Furthermore, according to the 2015 Silver Interim Report by the GFMS Team at Thomson Reuters, they show a 17.1 Moz net decline of Global Silver ETF inventories, while physical bar and coin demand rose to 206.5 Moz this year.

Looking at the following chart from my article, DEATH OF PAPER GOLD & SILVER: The Data Proves It,

we can see the drastic change of investor sentiment for physical silver bar and coin over Global Paper Silver ETFs. In over the past five years, Global Silver ETF inventories experienced a net build of 18.2 Moz compared to 994 Moz of physical silver bar and coin demand. Moreover, that figure is conservative due to the fact that the GFMS Team at Thomson Reuters does not include private silver rounds (bars) in their data.

Again, something broke in the U.S. Silver Market this year. I believe it had to do with the beginning shock of a possible Greek Exit of the European Union and continued by the threat of a U.S. and broader stock market collapse. Even though the Fed and Central Banks continue to prop up highly inflated over-leveraged Bonds & Stocks, this is not a long-term sustainable economic policy.

At some point, investors (especially wealthy investors and institutions) will start buying physical gold and silver to protect wealth before the collapse of the Greatest Ponzi Scheme in history begins in earnest. It will only take a small percentage increase of new buyers, say 2-3%, to totally overwhelm the precious metal market. When I say 2-3% new buyers, I am referring to those currently invested in paper assets.

The U.S. Silver Market broke a trend this year which I believe is significant going forward. While precious metal investors may be frustrated by the low paper price of gold and silver.. the fundamentals for owning the metals are stronger than ever.

 

 

Please email with any questions about this article or precious metals HERE

 

 

 

Something Broke In The U.S. Silver Market

Posted with permission and written by Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL)

 

 

Independent researcher Steve St. Angelo (SRSrocco) started to invest in precious metals in 2002. Later on in 2008, he began researching areas of the gold and silver market that, curiously, the majority of the precious metal analyst community have left unexplored. These areas include how energy and the falling EROI – Energy Returned On Invested – stand to impact the mining industry, precious metals, paper assets, and the overall economy.

You can find many of Steve’s articles on many noteworthy sites. Visit Steve at https://srsroccoreport.com.

 

First published here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-30/something-broke-us-silver-market