CENTRAL bankers and economists have spilled much ink in recent years on the question of why wages have not grown more. The average unemployment rate in advanced economies is 5.3%, lower than before the financial crisis. Yet even in America, the hottest rich-world economy, pay is growing by less than 3% annually. This month the European Central Bank devoted much of its annual shindig in Sintra, Portugal to discussing the wage puzzle.

Recent data show, however, that the problem rich countries face is not that nominal wage growth has failed to respond to economic conditions. It is that inflation is eating up pay increases and that real—that is, inflation-adjusted—wages are therefore stagnant. Real wages in America and the euro zone, for example, are growing more slowly even as the world economy, and headline pay, have both picked up (see chart).

MOST startups proudly announce their presence on buildings, billboards and any surface offering visibility. Not Coinbase, a crypto-currency startup. Visitors to its headquarters on a high floor of an office tower in San Francisco find themselves before an unmarked door and doorbell. They are asked to confirm by intercom which firm they intend to see. An online search for Coinbase shows its offices at a different location, a diversion tactic to keep away disgruntled crypto-currency investors, thieves who are trying to get access to crypto-assets, and other malefactors.

Such inconspicuousness contrasts with the company’s high profile. Coinbase is one of Silicon Valley’s fastest-growing young firms and by far the most prominent business to emerge from the mania around crypto-currencies. The six-year-old startup, an online brokerage for buying and selling bitcoin and other crypto-currencies, claimed a valuation of $1.6bn when it raised $100m from venture capitalists last year. It reportedly now has a...Continue reading
First published here: http://j.mp/2KqnXzX

“MONEY often costs too much,” quipped Ralph Waldo Emerson. But a new study suggests that since 1950, the price of buying it with labour in America has fallen. Greg Kaplan of the University of Chicago and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago have linked measures of how Americans today feel about various jobs to changes in employment.

Both men and women are less likely to be farmers, for example, now than in 1950, and more likely to be in management. Women are less likely to be secretaries, and men more likely to be in service-sector jobs. Assuming that people in 1950 felt the same way about particular jobs as people do now, workers today are less sad, less tired and in less pain.

But changes in other measures of well-being, and a separate analysis of men and women, are less uniformly positive (see chart). The economists find that modern employment patterns probably mean that today’s workers are more stressed. And although the jobs women have moved into are ones they...Continue reading
First published here: http://j.mp/2MtXYF4

THE rumour mill is grinding again. In early 2017 reports swirled of a possible merger between Generali, Italy’s biggest insurer, and Intesa Sanpaolo, the country’s second-biggest bank. That deal came to nothing. But Intesa is still looking for a partner. Now it is said to be in talks with BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset manager, about a stake in Eurizon, the bank’s asset-management unit. Deal or no deal, two things are clear. Italy’s asset-management industry is consolidating. And though investors fret over a populist government and towering public debt, its pool of private savings will keep them keen.

Last year Amundi, a French asset manager, bought Pioneer, the fund-management arm of UniCredit, Italy’s biggest bank. Over half of assets under management are owned by 10% of Italians, which makes the wealthier end of the business especially appealing. Mediobanca, an investment bank, last year opened a private bank and bought 69% of RAM Active Investments, a Swiss investment manager. And in May Indosuez, the wealth-management arm of Crédit Agricole, a French bank, acquired Leonardo, a private bank.

There is lots to fight for. Although Italy’s savings rate has fallen by more than half since the 1990s, at 10% of personal income it still beats Britain’s or Spain’s. The financial crisis a decade ago saw assets under management contract by...Continue reading
First published here: http://j.mp/2KkpHv9

THE opening of Britain’s Liverpool and Manchester Railway in 1830 marked several firsts in rail history. It was the world’s first inter-city line. It was the scene of the first widely reported passenger fatality. And it was also the first where all trains were hauled by the track owners. Previous lines had seen competition between operators, leading to the drivers of horse-drawn passengers trains and steam-pulled coal trucks having fisticuffs on the tracks. Two centuries later, the question of whether train and tracks should be operated by the same firm still simmers across Europe.

That is because new EU rules, enticingly called the “fourth railway package”, will force all state rail firms to open their tracks to rivals from next year. It means a “tectonic shift” for the industry, argues Leos Novotny of LEO Express, a rail startup based in Prague. And it comes at a time when commuters are particularly grumpy about trains. In France three months of labour strikes at SNCF, the state rail...Continue reading
First published here: http://j.mp/2MzaNy3

SECOND chances exist, after all. Last September Uber was sideswiped when Transport for London (TfL), the city’s transport regulator, revoked the ride-hailing giant’s licence to operate in the capital, citing concerns related to public safety and reporting of drivers’ criminal offences. The decision appeared to dent the prospects of the firm, which counts London as its largest European market and one of the most lucrative of its 600 cities. Uber continued to operate in London while appealing the decision, but a lot still hung in the balance.

Welcome news came on June 26th when a judge in London awarded the firm a licence for 15 months. In court Uber had taken a contrite and muted stance, promising to do more to provide support for riders and drivers, including launching a telephone hotline for passengers. The chief magistrate for the case, Emma Arbuthnot, decided that Uber had not acted in a sufficiently “fit and proper” manner previously, but that its new approach and leadership suggests it is ready to do so now.

TfL will still monitor it over the next 15 months, which will serve as a probationary period of sorts before its licence is again reviewed. Some doubt if Uber has really changed its rough-and-tumble ways. Gerald Gouriet, a lawyer representing the Licensed Taxi Drivers’ Association, said that an “Uber in sheep’s clothing” had...Continue reading
First published here: http://j.mp/2KkpF6v

HOW to sell cars when most people can’t afford to buy one? That is the conundrum for Volkswagen in Rwanda, where it is opening the country’s first car-assembly plant. A new Polo costs 33 times the average Rwandan income. Most cars on the road are second-hand imports. Rwanda absorbs perhaps 3,000 new cars a year, says Thomas Schäfer, VW’s chief in Africa. Past projects by carmakers in Africa, he admits, have ended in “monumental failure”.

Yet there was a hopeful mood when VW launched its operations in Kigali, the Rwandan capital, on June 27th. The moment opens ”a new chapter in Rwanda’s journey,” said Paul Kagame, the president, after taking a demonstration model for a spin. In truth, little of the manufacturing will happen locally, at least to begin with. VW will build its vehicles elsewhere, partly dismantle them, then put them back together in Rwanda.

The real novelty is how the cars will be used. VW is linking production to a ride-hailing and car-sharing service,...Continue reading
First published here: http://j.mp/2MvwTkH

IN MAY 1945 John Maynard Keynes wrote a memo on the post-war economy. In it he argued that Britain should seek to be in the mainstream of global commerce. It would suit finance as well as industry to have the whole world as a playground, he wrote. “We built up the pre-war sterling area because we were bankers amiable to treat with and having a long record of honouring our cheques.”

He passed over how Britain’s economic muscle had helped sterling’s dominance—perhaps because by then that muscle was wasting. Yet it is implacable economic might that leads many today to conclude that the yuan, China’s currency, will supplant the dollar, just as sterling gave way to the dollar after 1945. The yuan is already one of five constituents of the Special Drawing Right, a basket of reserve currencies created by the IMF. And China is opening up to capital flows. This year foreigners have been the biggest buyers of Chinese government bonds.

It is tempting to see this as another milestone on the way to the yuan’s preordained supremacy. But it is an error to interpret current events in the light of an imagined future. Foreign buyers of Chinese bonds are not swept along by an unseen law of history. Rather they are spurred by more prosaic considerations.

ALAIN LILLE is not pleased. His wildcat oil firm spent a fortune looking for oil in Petronia, a former colony known for cashmere wool, long before anyone else was willing to take the risk. After sealing a deal with the long-ruling government, he was poised to reap the rewards. But in last year’s election, a new president came to power, promising a better deal for the people. Mr Lille fears she will reopen negotiations, further delaying any profits for the company or revenues for the country. She has invited four foreign “experts”, who have never set foot in the country before, to advise her. As he shares these concerns at a drinks reception at Hôtel Capitale, Mr Lille notices one of these foreign advisers sidling up to listen in.

Mr Lille does not exist. Neither does the country, Petronia. They appear instead in a new online game created by the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI), a think-tank based in New York and London that seeks to improve the management of oil, gas and mineral wealth in developing countries. As a player, you take on the role of that pesky foreign adviser eavesdropping on Mr Lille. As well as the drinks reception, your adventures will take you to the presidential palace, the capital city’s cafés and markets, and the coastal district of Neftala, where the oil was discovered.

In its training courses NRGI has long...Continue reading
First published here: http://j.mp/2Ku9eRc

PRESIDENT Donald Trump’s view of investment depends on who is doing it. On June 22nd he railed against Europeans exporting cars to America, demanding that they “build them here!” On June 26th he tweeted that all Harley-Davidson motorcycles should be made in America (see article). But when it comes to Chinese investors buying American technology, Mr Trump would prefer a frostier approach.

Investors have feared a clampdown since March, when the administration concluded that China’s unfair actions against American companies merited retaliatory restrictions on Chinese investments in “industries or technologies deemed important to the United States”. Mr Trump directed Steven Mnuchin, the treasury secretary, to come up with options. On June 24th it appeared policy might tighten dramatically, with reports of plans to limit investment in America in the...Continue reading
First published here: http://j.mp/2yRI4Co