Filed under: Savings Experiment

Did you know: The last week of August can have the lowest prices for summer air travel?

Recent studies by Cheap Air and Hopper.com show that the final week before Labor Day is the cheapest time to fly to most destinations. During this time, tickets can be about $40 cheaper per person than in July. For a family of four, that's savings of $160!

Also, book your flights around two months in advance if you want to get the best summer rates.

And it gets even better. According to Orbitz, hotel prices are at their lowest the last week of August as well. Rooms average over $15 less per night than in July. For longer stays, those savings could really add up!

So when it comes to summer travel, remember that the biggest savings come to those who wait!

 

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First published here: http://j.mp/1TVxxHm

By EconMatters

 

When reviewing the financial metrics of CVX, this stock is overpriced relative to the fundamentals of the company. CVX should Conservatively Retest $88 before year end. With over $42 Billion in Debt, a $50 oil price, and a 4% dividend this company is mismanaging capital right now trying to prop up the stock in the short term versus prudent fiscal management for the long term. This stock is a short on any pops into year end. Even with $60 oil this stock is overpriced as costs in the oil services sector are only going to go up from here! There are a lot of overpriced stocks right now, but CVX is one of the most offensive in our opinion.

© EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle    

First published here: http://j.mp/1TUTlTs

Traders gunned the market higher last week thanks to extremely low volume (most of Wall Street left early for the holiday weekend) and the usual performance (many funds have to record results at month end).

 

The S&P 500 has now slammed up against overhead resistance (red line). We are once again within spitting distance of the all-time highs.

 

 

Against this backdrop, earnings are in a free-fall. EPS are back at 2012 levels, while the S&P 500 is 70% higher than then:

 

 

This divergence is only getting worse. Of the 111 companies that have issued guidance for 2Q16, an incredible 80% are NEGATIVE.

 

More and more this environment feels like late 2007/ early 2008: when the economy was in collapse but stocks held up on hopes that the Fed could maintain the bubble.

 

The time to prepare for this bubble to burst is now. Imagine if you'd prepared for the 2008 Crash back in late 2007? We did, and our clients made triple digit returns when the markets imploded.

 

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

 

In it, we outline the coming crash will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

 

We are giving away just 1,000 copies of this report for FREE to the public.

 

To pick up yours, swing by:

http://j.mp/1TQxHwv

 

Best Regards

 

Graham Summers

 

First published here: http://j.mp/1P126qw

YOUR correspondent received a rare treat last week. On travelling to speak at a conference, it emerged that the client had stumped up for a business-class flight. This in itself is not a surprise. After all, there is a point to travelling at the front of the plane beyond merely quaffing better quality food and drink: being able to stretch out and sleep or work comfortably in transit can be invaluable in helping you arrive sharp and ready for action the moment you reach your destination.

Still—and without wishing to sound churlish—on this occasion, it seemed like a perk too far. The posh tickets were for a flight of barely 90 minutes from London to Norway, the evening before the conference. No chance of jetlag hampering my performance in this instance. Which invited the question of what utility business-class travel brings to short-haul flights.

The answer is very little. Fast-tracking passengers through security is all well and good, but in reality saves precious little time for additional work. Equally, a few inches more legroom and metal cutlery are pleasant, but not essential for a flight that lasts such a short time. And beyond...Continue reading

First published here: http://j.mp/1P1255W

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Higher Wages For The Workers Help EVERYONE

Written by Jeff Nielson (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL)

 

 

 

Much of what is known as “economic theory” is gibberish. It is propaganda, implanted into the minds of academics for one reason: to preserve the status quo of always favoring the (very) wealthy over all other members of the population. The facets of economic doctrine which are valid, are valid because they do little more than express principles of simple arithmetic and common sense.

“Supply and demand” is just simple arithmetic and common sense. If supply exceeds demand (i.e. there is a surplus), the price falls. This depresses supply and stimulates demand, until equilibrium is restored. If demand exceeds supply (i.e. there is a deficit), the price rises. This stimulates supply and depresses demand, until equilibrium is restored.

Similarly, the principle of economics known as the Marginal Propensity to Consume, is nothing more than an expression of simple arithmetic and common sense. Put a dollar into the hands of a poor person, and that person will spend the entire dollar, providing maximum stimulus to the economy. That’s not a “theory.” It is an elementary fact.

Put a dollar into the hands of a middle class person (the few who remain), and that person will spend most of the dollar, and save a small portion of it. Again, this is not a “theory.” It is an elementary fact. Put a dollar into the hands of a wealthy person, and that person will hoard the vast majority of that dollar. The wealthier the person, the greater the percentage that is hoarded.

Thus economic theory tells us that the more-equitably that wealth is distributed in any economy (and society) the stronger and more prosperous that economy will become. The last century of empirical evidence shows us precisely the same thing. In the 1960’s; wealth was distributed in our societies more equitably than at any other time in our history. In the 1960’s, our economies were more prosperous than at any other time in our history.

Today, wealth is distributed less equitably than at any time in our history, i.e. the oligarchs at the very top, are hoarding a greater percentage of wealth than at any time in our history. Our economies are bankrupt. (Real) unemployment is at record levels. The middle class has almost been wiped out, and individually, we are drowning in more debt than at any other time. And this is how things look as the Next Crash looms before us.

When was the only other time in history when our economies were in almost this horrific a condition? During the Great Depression. The Great Depression is the only other time in our history when wealth was concentrated almost as extremely and inequitably as it is today.

This is nothing more than a manifestation of common sense. We have “capitalist economies.” What happens when a tiny minority of people hoard most of the wealth, and thus this “capital” ceases to circulate in the economy? The economy begins to starve to death, i.e. there is a Depression. The evidence could not be more obvious.

 

 

More and more and more wealth is hoarded by the Top 0.1%. Less and less and less capital circulates in our capitalist economies. What is the only way to restore any semblance of health to our economies after we initiate Debt Jubilee)? By increasing the percentage of wealth in the hands of the people, and reducing the percentage being uselessly hoarded by the oligarchs.

In the United States; the Top 0.1% is hoarding as much total wealth as the bottom-90% combined. Obviously this tiny group of people didn’t earn (roughly) 90% of all wealth. They stole it. The easiest way to liberate this stolen wealth is via taxation.

The easiest way to put more dollars into the hands of the people is a two-stage process:

1.  Create jobs for everyone, instead of structuring the economy so that 20+% of the population are not allowed to work.
2. Pay the people fair wages.

 

In real dollars, wages for the Average Person have been declining for nearly 50 years. Consequently, our standard of living has fallen by well over 50%. Yet despite all of these indisputable facts, there is still a large community of Neanderthals who insist that paying people a livable wage (rather than a slave wage) would destroy our economies.

“It’s going to cause a job loss across the country like you’re not going to believe.”

What was the context for this dire prediction? These were the words of a McDonalds executive, predicting the End of the World, should McDonalds employees ever be paid a livable wage of $15/hour (USD). Let’s explicitly expand upon the reasoning behind this fear-mongering.

1.  If McDonalds was forced to pay its workers $15/hour (due to a mandatory minimum wage) it would have to raise prices.
   
2. If McDonalds raised its prices, people would stop buying its food, sales would fall, and the (fairly paid) workers would lose their jobs.
   

 

Why would McDonalds' sales fall dramatically, if it raised its prices? Because the United States is (like Canada) a minimum wage economy: the land of the Working Poor. If McDonalds paid its workers fairly (so goes the logic), the rest of the Working Poor could no longer afford to shop there.

Wrong.

If all of the Working Poor were being paid $15/hour (USD) instead of the current minimum wage of $7.25/hour, all of the slaves would have more than twice as much money in their pockets. If everyone was paid a livable wage, no one would lose their jobs because of higher prices.

Note the other argument of the McDonalds Neanderthal:

“It’s cheaper to buy a robot than hire at $15/hour.”

Yes. Why don’t all the Slave Masters replace all their slaves with automation, instead of paying those slaves a livable wage? And once all of the slaves have been replaced with “robots”, who will buy McDonalds hamburgers? The robots? Indeed, with McDonalds’ sales already spiraling downward, if they ever did pay their workers a livable wage, it could be the basis for a new advertising campaign: buy McDonalds “fair-wage burgers..”

We don’t need to view this issue hypothetically, when we have a real-life example of (relative) enlightenment: Switzerland. In Switzerland, a referendum was held to seek to raise the minimum wage to the equivalent of $25/hour (USD). According to people like the McDonalds Neanderthal, if a $15/hour minimum wage would cause job losses “like you’re not going to believe” then a $25/hour minimum wage would be nothing less than economic Armageddon.

In fact, the referendum was defeated. However, of greater relevance is the fact that even if the referendum had passed, almost nothing would have changed in Switzerland’s economy. In Switzerland, 90% of the workers already make more than $25/hour (USD). Is Switzerland’s economy collapsing, because its workers are being “overpaid”? No. Switzerland has one of the only healthy economies in the Western world.

High wages (for the workers) = prosperity.

This was an empirical fact with our own economies, a half-century ago. It is an empirical fact with Switzerland today. Simple arithmetic and common sense tell us that fair wages for the workers must lead to greater economic prosperity, for everyone. All of our economic empirical evidence shows precisely the same thing. As our economies become more-equitable, they become stronger and stronger. As our economies become less-equitable, they get weaker and weaker.

For those who choose to ignore simple arithmetic and common sense, and for those who choose to ignore 100 years of empirical evidence, we have the IMF.

IMF study finds inequality is damaging to economic growth.

Simple arithmetic. Common sense. Empirical evidence. Economic studies. Still not convinced that greater wealth equality helps everyone? How about these words of wisdom?

An imbalance between rich and poor is the oldest and most fatal ailment of all Republics.

Who uttered those words? Were they from one of the authors of the IMF study? No. Those were the words of Plutarch, a Greek philosopher who lived 2,000 years ago. Two thousand years ago; it was already “old news” that the fastest/easiest way to destroy the economy of any nation is to allow the wealthy to steal-and-hoard most of the wealth.

Apparently, we haven’t learned much in 2,000 years.

 

 

 

 

Please email with any questions about this article or precious metals HERE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Higher Wages For The Workers Help EVERYONE

Written by Jeff Nielson (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL)

First published here: http://j.mp/1WuBDtf

The US Gold Market is best known as the home of gold futures
trading on the COMEX in New York. The COMEX has a literal monopoly on gold
futures trading volumes worldwide, but very little physical gold is actually
exchanged between COMEX trading participants, and gold inventories maintained
in COMEX vaults in New York are extremely low. This COMEX Gold Futures Market
infographic guides you through the largest gold futures market in the world,
COMEX.

New York is also storage location for nearly 6000 tonnes of
central bank gold stored in the vaults beneath the New York Federal Reserve on
behalf of customers such as the International Monetary Fund, the central Bank
of Italy, Germany's Bundesbank, and over 30 other countries. The infographic
visually profiles these gold vaults and their operators. Finally, the
infographic provides a snapshot of the US gold mining industry, centered in
Nevada.

Did you, for example, know that only 1 in 2500 contracts on
COMEX goes to physical delivery whereas the other 2499 contracts are
cash-settled? This corresponds to a delivery percentage of 0.04% of all gold
contracts.

The US government claims to hold a fair bit of gold in
reserves but how much is it really holding?

In this infographic you will learn more about the COMEX gold
futures market considering:

• COMEX Trading Volumes
• Fractionally Reserved Futures Trading
• Cash-settlement of COMEX Gold Futures Contracts
• Eligible and Registered Gold on COMEX
• US Treasury Gold Reserves
• Location of US Treasury Gold Reserves
• Foreign Gold at the Federal Bank of New York
• US Gold Mining

You can learn more about the US Gold Market at the
BullionStar Gold University.

 

US COMEX Gold Futures Market – An infographic hosted at BullionStar.com

To embed this infographic on your site, copy and past the code below

<a href="http://j.mp/1WuhnIt"><img src="http://j.mp/25vkMIy" width="600"><p>US COMEX Gold Futures Market – An infographic hosted at <a href="http://j.mp/1Wuh0h5">BullionStar.com</a></p>

First published here: http://j.mp/1WuheEF

By EconMatters

We compare Germany and South Korea`s Business Development Strategy versus the United States - and how important top down leadership is in cultivating a strategic vision for a country`s growth prospects.

© EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle   

First published here: http://j.mp/24hihHp

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

David Morgan on the Dollar Demise: Silver Moves to China

Posted with permission and written by SGT Report (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL)

 

 

David Morgan of The Morgan Report, an icon in the silver sector, returns to SGT Report to discuss the future of the US Dollar and the transfer of physical gold from West to East. More specifically, the transfer of gold and silver away from the Comex and the City of London's paper markets, to Chinese PHYSICAL precious metal markets like the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange and the ABX.

 

 

It's becoming very clear that a sea change is underway as China hoards PHYSICAL silver at the Shanghai Gold Exchange, while openly encouraging Chinese citizens to acquire physical silver and gold as a way to protect wealth. It's a paradigm shift of epic proportion, away from paper promises and into PHYSICAL metal. David Morgan says,

 

Back roughly a decade or so ago, China was exporting roughly 100 million ounces of silver per year – exporting out of China. And then…it was roughly six years or so ago they started becoming a net importer of…a hundred million [ounces]. So that’s a 200-million ounce swing.

 

According to Steve St. Angelo from SRS Rocco Report, in just the past several weeks the Shanghai Futures Exchange's PHYSICAL silver stocks have increased from 54.7 million ounces to 60.6 million ounces, a figure that most certainly must leave officials at the Comex filled with envy, if not drowning in outright fear.

 

In this wide-ranging conversation, Sean from SGT Report and David also discuss Clif High's Web bot project. Originally developed in 1997 to predict stock market trends, the Web bots crawl the World Wide Web in search of speech markers, chatter and other specific data which can often predict future events. For some time now, the Web bot data has been predicting an explosion in the price of silver, with some of the precious metals language indicating that silver might one day achieve a 1 to 1 parity with gold as the USD finally meets its inevitable demise as the world's reserve currency.

 

Morgan says that silver is one precious metal that the Bankers fear. And though a silver to gold ratio of 1 to 1 is a very heady prediction, Morgan says it's actually possible given silver's extreme rarity, history and widespread use as an industrial metal.

 

"I think it's accurate… What people don’t seem to realize about silver in general, for my generation or perhaps people slightly older than me, was that…in 1965 we were issued slugs. But through 1968, you could actually take a silver certificate to the Treasury and get silver for it. So they were circulating 90% [silver] coins in the United States, until and through 1964. But it was illegal to own gold until 1973. So you had this gap between say, ’65 and ’73, where really all you could do if you understood monetary history at all, and Mr. Bunker Hunt certainly did, was to preserve your wealth in silver. …I’m just trying to give a little history here of why silver was probably thought of more as money back in that time-frame than it is now. I mean I read these articles every so often about silver not being money, which always makes me laugh, because the word “money” and the word “silver” are synonymous.…The gold standard is one step to fiat…If you could get the people to give up silver as money… [then] the bankers only had one metal to control, and they owned it. He who owns the gold makes the rules. So a gold-only standard is like the step required before you go to a full fiat system, whereas if you have a bi-metallic standard it’s more difficult for them [the bankers]. So believe me or not, the Establishment cares more about silver than they care about gold . Not from a monetary aspect, but probably from a control aspect."

 

As for the future of the US Dollar as the world's reserve currency, Morgan says:

 

"It appears strongly in all the evidence that I've studied that there is a faction or breakaway between the Anglo-American empire and let's call it the axis of the BRICS… I've always believed that it would unravel enough in my lifetime to be a substantial change, which means it's going to be probably a 20 year ordeal for my two daughters… I think it's continued longer than I first believed because to keep a Ponzi scheme going you need to have more people at the bottom."

 

So sit back, grab a cup of coffee and get ready for a far-reaching and dynamic discussion with Silver Guru David Morgan about the Dollar's demise and silver's very quantifiable move from west to the east.

 

 

 

 

Please email with any questions about this article or precious metals HERE

 

 

 

 

 

David Morgan on the Dollar Demise: Silver Moves to China

Posted with permission and written by SGT Report (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL)

First published here: http://j.mp/1OXxAxT

Global Financial Crisis Coming – Japan Warns of “Lehman-Scale” Crisis At G7

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe warned his Group of Seven counterparts on Friday that the world may on the brink of a global financial crisis on the scale of Lehman Brothers.

The Japanese Prime Minister presented data yesterday at the G7 summit he is hosting, showing that commodities prices have fallen 55 percent since 2014, the same margin they fell during the global financial crisis, interpreting this as “warning of the re-emergence of a Lehman-scale crisis”.

The Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe failed in his attempt to have the G7 leaders warn of the risk of a global economic crisis in a communique issued as their summit wrapped up today in Japan.

The final statement failed to address the scale of the financial crisis facing the world today and instead gave the impression that the worst is over with somewhat Orwellian language which declared that G-7 countries “have strengthened the resilience of our economies in order to avoid falling into another crisis.”

The communique gives the impression that there is little risk due to strengthened, resilient economies when the truth is that there are significant risks facing the global financial system and the global economy. Some of which include:

• The global economy remains vulnerable to recessions and new debt crises. There are fragile recoveries in the Eurozone, UK and U.S. while Japan remains in a recession
• Financial and banking systems remains vulnerable as seen in the very sharp falls in bank shares in recent weeks. Spanish, Italian, Greek and German banks have seen sell offs
• Geopolitical risk in the Middle East (Syria, Saudi, Iran etc.), increasing tensions amongst Russia, China and western powers and the increasing spectre of terrorism and war
• The Eurozone crisis is far from resolved and there is the risk of debt crises in China, the U.S., the Eurozone and indeed the UK

• BREXIT causes a short term risk but the real risk is the poor financial fundamentals of the UK economy – total debt to GDP ratio (public and private) is over 450% and completely unsustainable.

Japan had pressed G-7 leaders to note “the risk of the global economy exceeding the normal economic cycle and falling into a crisis if we did not take appropriate policy responses in a timely manner.” However, leaders again failed to take leadership and opted for spin and again lulling their electorates into a false sense of security about the financial and economic outlook.

Rather than doing the responsible thing in this regard, there appears to have been an attempt to focus on BREXIT and to scare UK voters into not voting for a UK exit from the EU. German Chancellor Angela Merkel went as far as to say that BREXIT had not even been discussed but that there was a consensus that they wanted the UK to stay in the EU.

Yet, a 32-page declaration putatively from the G7 leaders declared that “A UK exit from the EU would reverse the trend towards greater global trade and investment, and the jobs they create, and is a further serious risk to growth.” Brexit was listed alongside geopolitical conflicts, terrorism and refugee flows as a potential shock of a “non-economic origin”.

Japan is right to be warning that there is a danger of the world economy careering into another financial crisis on the scale of the 2008 Lehman shock given the scale of the debt in the world today is much, much more than it was prior to the first financial crisis – see McKinsey Global Institute chart above.

Diversification remains the key to weathering the likely impact of the next financial crisis on financial markets and assets including deposits. Paper and digital assets, including digital gold, contain unappreciated risks such as bail-ins and inability to transact, be paid, liquidity etc.

Direct legal ownership of individually segregated and allocated gold coins and bars will again protect and grow wealth in the coming years.

Recent Market Updates
– Gold Should Rise Above $1,900/oz -“New Bull Market”
– World’s Largest Asset Manager Suggests “Perfect Time” For Gold
– Gold As “Extremely Low-Risk Asset” – Rogoff Advises Creditor Nations
– Silver – “Best Precious Metals Trade”
– Bank Bail-Ins Pose Risks To Depositors, Investors & Economies
– Take Delivery of Gold and Silver Coins, Store Gold Bars – Hobbs
– George Soros Buying Gold ETF And Gold Shares In Q1
– Hedge Funds Take Record Long Silver Position As Silver Bullion Deficit Surges

 

 

Learn the risks inherent in paper and digital gold

First published here: http://j.mp/1VpRfgw

The dollar moved up, though most people would say gold fell about $40, and silver 32 cents. In the mainstream view, the value of the dollar is 1/N (N is the quantity). So how could the dollar go up? Certainly, the quantity keeps on increasing.

Our view is different. If you borrow dollars to buy an asset, and the asset doesn’t produce generate enough yield to pay the interest, you have to sell or default. It should go without saying that it’s an unsustainable Ponzi scheme if everyone keeps borrowing more and more to simply bid up the price of any asset (including gold).

So here we are, and the dollar is getting more valuable again.

Let’s take a look at the supply and demand fundamentals. But first, here’s the graph of the metals’ prices.

       The Prices of Gold and Silver

Next, this is a graph of the gold price measured in silver, otherwise known as the gold to silver ratio. The ratio was down a bit this week. 

The Ratio of the Gold Price to the Silver Price

For each metal, we will look at a graph of the basis and cobasis overlaid with the price of the dollar in terms of the respective metal. It will make it easier to provide brief commentary. The dollar will be represented in green, the basis in blue and cobasis in red.

Here is the gold graph.

       The Gold Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price

The red line is back to a tight correlation with the green. That is, the price of the dollar is rising (i.e. the price of gold, measured in dollars is falling). Along with it, we finally see a noticeable rise in the scarcity of gold. Gold finally got a bit scarcer as its price fell another $40. Speculators finally flushed a bit, with stop orders getting hit in this brutal (to them) price action. Regular readers of Monetary Metals didn’t get caught, as we have been saying that the fundamental price of gold is below the market.

Our calculated fundamental price of gold is just under $1,170. Sure, gold got scarcer with the price drop. But only in proportion.

Now let’s turn to silver.

The Silver Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price

The same pattern applies in silver.

As in gold, silver is scarcer at this lower price. Proportionally.

The fundamental is $13.90. This gives us a fundamental gold-silver ratio of about 84.

 

© 2016 Monetary Metals

First published here: http://j.mp/1VpR5G1